Per-ticker

Which stocks actually react predictably to earnings?

Every other page on this site asks whether the earnings-day gap predicts anything in aggregate, across the whole S&P 500. The answer there is no. This page asks a narrower, per-stock question: for each individual company, has its own average post-earnings excess return historically been reliably different from zero — or is it, like almost everything else here, indistinguishable from noise?

Same one-sample t-test this site runs everywhere else, on market-adjusted excess returns, just grouped by ticker instead of gap size. Testing ~500 companies independently produces false positives by construction — the numbers below make that plain rather than handing back a ranked list of stocks to trade.

542

tickers tested

“significant” at p<0.05

~27.1

expected by chance alone

survive FDR correction

43 of 542 tickers clear the naive 5% bar — close to the ~27.1 you'd expect from pure chance testing this many names independently. Only 0 survive a Benjamini-Hochberg correction across the whole list. Treat the ranking below as “here’s how each ticker sorts,” not “here are the predictable ones.”

p<0.05 only

#	Ticker	Sector	n	Mean excess	Win rate	t-stat	Sig.
1	FIX Comfort Systems USA	Industrials	19*	+7.6%	68%	4.25	p<.05
2	PARA Banzai International, Inc.	Information Technology	19*	-15.9%	47%	-3.53	p<.05
3	O Realty Income	Real Estate	19*	-3.4%	63%	-3.52	p<.05
4	MHK Mohawk Industries, Inc.	Consumer Discretionary	20*	-6.1%	40%	-3.35	p<.05
5	WY Weyerhaeuser	Real Estate	19*	-2.8%	42%	-3.05	p<.05
6	DIS Walt Disney Company (The)	Communication Services	19*	-3.3%	58%	-3.03	p<.05
7	GS Goldman Sachs	Financials	19*	+3.4%	74%	3.01	p<.05
8	KDP Keurig Dr Pepper	Consumer Staples	19*	-3.1%	68%	-2.82	p<.05
9	ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities	Real Estate	19*	-4.7%	42%	-2.75	p<.05
10	OGN Organon & Co.	Health Care	20*	-6.6%	55%	-2.72	p<.05
11	BXP BXP, Inc.	Real Estate	19*	-3.3%	47%	-2.71	p<.05
12	ALGN Align Technology	Health Care	19*	-4.8%	37%	-2.69	p<.05
13	CASY Casey's	Consumer Staples	19*	+3.9%	42%	2.68	p<.05
14	AMTM Amentum Holdings, Inc.	Industrials	8*	-5.6%	50%	-2.54	p<.05
15	PWR Quanta Services	Industrials	19*	+4.1%	37%	2.54	p<.05
16	VICI Vici Properties	Real Estate	19*	-3.1%	47%	-2.54	p<.05
17	PYPL PayPal	Financials	19*	-4.8%	53%	-2.50	p<.05
18	PANW Palo Alto Networks	Information Technology	19*	+5.4%	58%	2.47	p<.05
19	BF-B Brown–Forman	Consumer Staples	19*	-4.5%	47%	-2.46	p<.05
20	EQT EQT Corporation	Energy	19*	+6.5%	42%	2.46	p<.05
21	MGM MGM Resorts	Consumer Discretionary	19*	-5.2%	47%	-2.46	p<.05
22	WHR Whirlpool Corporation	Consumer Discretionary	20*	-4.7%	45%	-2.43	p<.05
23	XRAY DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc.	Health Care	20*	-4.8%	50%	-2.37	p<.05
24	ALLE Allegion	Industrials	19*	-3.0%	47%	-2.36	p<.05
25	WU The Western Union Company	Financials	20*	-3.4%	60%	-2.36	p<.05
26	NVR NVR, Inc.	Consumer Discretionary	19*	-3.4%	68%	-2.35	p<.05
27	TER Teradyne	Information Technology	19*	+5.6%	42%	2.35	p<.05
28	LRCX Lam Research	Information Technology	19*	+4.6%	53%	2.34	p<.05
29	FICO Fair Isaac	Information Technology	19*	+5.4%	53%	2.32	p<.05
30	FSLR First Solar	Information Technology	19*	+10.2%	42%	2.32	p<.05
31	LKQ LKQ Corporation	Consumer Discretionary	20*	-3.7%	55%	-2.31	p<.05
32	BNY BNY Mellon	Financials	19*	+2.5%	37%	2.30	p<.05
33	J Jacobs Solutions	Industrials	19*	-2.9%	42%	-2.29	p<.05
34	ZBRA Zebra Technologies	Information Technology	19*	-4.9%	47%	-2.26	p<.05
35	SBAC SBA Communications	Real Estate	19*	-3.3%	53%	-2.25	p<.05
36	NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings	Consumer Discretionary	19*	-5.9%	53%	-2.24	p<.05
37	STX Seagate Technology	Information Technology	19*	+5.4%	58%	2.22	p<.05
38	OMC Omnicom Group	Communication Services	19*	-2.5%	58%	-2.21	p<.05
39	LYV Live Nation Entertainment	Communication Services	19*	-3.7%	37%	-2.18	p<.05
40	FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust	Real Estate	19*	-1.9%	47%	-2.16	p<.05
41	PENN PENN Entertainment, Inc.	Consumer Discretionary	20*	-5.8%	65%	-2.16	p<.05
42	DHR Danaher Corporation	Health Care	19*	-3.7%	42%	-2.15	p<.05
43	MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc.	Financials	20*	-5.2%	35%	-2.15	p<.05
44	CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc.	Consumer Discretionary	20*	-6.3%	55%	-2.08	—
45	TFX Teleflex Incorporated	Health Care	20*	-3.5%	85%	-2.08	—
46	VTRS Viatris	Health Care	19*	-4.7%	37%	-2.08	—
47	KLAC KLA Corporation	Information Technology	19*	+3.3%	53%	2.05	—
48	XYL Xylem Inc.	Industrials	19*	-2.5%	47%	-2.05	—
49	WDC Western Digital	Information Technology	19*	+4.7%	42%	2.04	—
50	ABNB Airbnb	Consumer Discretionary	19*	-3.4%	42%	-2.03	—
51	STLD Steel Dynamics	Materials	19*	+4.0%	53%	2.03	—
52	TRGP Targa Resources	Energy	19*	+3.2%	32%	2.03	—
53	DOC Healthpeak Properties	Real Estate	19*	-3.0%	37%	-2.02	—
54	IBKR Interactive Brokers	Financials	19*	+3.8%	58%	2.02	—
55	NWL Newell Brands Inc.	Consumer Staples	19*	-5.1%	42%	-2.02	—
56	FTNT Fortinet	Information Technology	19*	+5.3%	53%	1.99	—
57	GPN Global Payments	Financials	19*	-4.4%	68%	-1.98	—
58	HIG Hartford (The)	Financials	19*	+2.7%	42%	1.93	—
59	HWM Howmet Aerospace	Industrials	19*	+2.9%	58%	1.93	—
60	AMCR Amcor	Materials	19*	-2.0%	42%	-1.92	—
61	CDNS Cadence Design Systems	Information Technology	19*	+2.2%	63%	1.89	—
62	REG Regency Centers	Real Estate	19*	-1.7%	32%	-1.89	—
63	RL Ralph Lauren Corporation	Consumer Discretionary	19*	+3.3%	63%	1.89	—
64	UPS United Parcel Service	Industrials	19*	-2.6%	47%	-1.87	—
65	TSN Tyson Foods	Consumer Staples	19*	-2.9%	47%	-1.86	—
66	GWW W. W. Grainger	Industrials	19*	+2.0%	53%	1.84	—
67	DLR Digital Realty	Real Estate	19*	-2.3%	42%	-1.83	—
68	CRM Salesforce	Information Technology	19*	-2.1%	53%	-1.82	—
69	COHR Coherent Corp.	Information Technology	19*	+6.9%	58%	1.79	—
70	BX Blackstone Inc.	Financials	19*	-3.2%	42%	-1.78	—
71	LLY Lilly (Eli)	Health Care	19*	+4.5%	53%	1.78	—
72	PPG PPG Industries	Materials	19*	-1.9%	42%	-1.78	—
73	TPR Tapestry, Inc.	Consumer Discretionary	18*	+3.9%	56%	1.78	—
74	KR Kroger	Consumer Staples	19*	+1.9%	58%	1.73	—
75	HST Host Hotels & Resorts	Real Estate	19*	-1.8%	58%	-1.72	—
76	LNC Lincoln National Corporation	Financials	20*	-3.3%	60%	-1.71	—
77	CAH Cardinal Health	Health Care	19*	+2.8%	37%	1.70	—
78	LULU Lululemon Athletica	Consumer Discretionary	19*	-2.9%	63%	-1.69	—
79	BALL Ball Corporation	Materials	19*	-3.1%	26%	-1.68	—
80	COST Costco	Consumer Staples	20*	+1.6%	45%	1.68	—
81	FLEX Flex Ltd.	Information Technology	19*	+4.3%	53%	1.68	—
82	PRU Prudential Financial	Financials	19*	-1.4%	58%	-1.68	—
83	TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific	Health Care	19*	-2.8%	53%	-1.68	—
84	CRWD CrowdStrike	Information Technology	19*	+3.4%	42%	1.67	—
85	DASH DoorDash	Consumer Discretionary	17*	-4.7%	29%	-1.67	—
86	PLD Prologis	Real Estate	19*	-2.3%	63%	-1.65	—
87	RMD ResMed	Health Care	19*	-2.9%	21%	-1.64	—
88	ADBE Adobe Inc.	Information Technology	20*	-2.4%	60%	-1.63	—
89	NOV NOV Inc.	Energy	19*	-3.6%	53%	-1.63	—
90	HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise	Information Technology	19*	+3.9%	47%	1.60	—
91	RVTY Revvity	Health Care	19*	-2.9%	53%	-1.60	—
92	CBRE CBRE Group	Real Estate	19*	-2.7%	58%	-1.59	—
93	APH Amphenol	Information Technology	19*	+2.1%	58%	1.58	—
94	HUBB Hubbell Incorporated	Industrials	19*	+2.5%	47%	1.58	—
95	LIN Linde plc	Materials	19*	+2.1%	32%	1.58	—
96	EVRG Evergy	Utilities	19*	-2.0%	47%	-1.57	—
97	MSFT Microsoft	Information Technology	19*	-1.6%	68%	-1.56	—
98	SMCI Supermicro	Information Technology	18*	+11.4%	67%	1.55	—
99	BSX Boston Scientific	Health Care	19*	-2.0%	16%	-1.54	—
100	EIX Edison International	Utilities	19*	+2.2%	47%	1.54	—

Showing the top 100 of 542 matches, sorted by |t-stat|. Search to narrow further.

* n below 30events — this site’s usual confidence floor. Tickers with fewer than 8events aren’t shown at all; a t-test on a handful of earnings reports isn’t worth reporting.

Thinking about a paid tier — an email alert before a ticker’s next earnings if its predictability ranking has shifted, CSV export, more horizons.

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